Flight-Test Validation of a Takeoff Performance Uncertainty Model

A Monte Carlo model designed for fixed-wing aircraft takeoff performance uncertainty quantification is benchmarked. The uses of an efficient simulator this type range from rapid design variable and constraint sensitivity studies large-scale conceptual level analyses to operational planning real-time anomaly detection. accuracy the assessed against high-resolution flight-test data obtained through a campaign consisting eight takeoffs flown with specially instrumented commuter category transport aircraft: BAe Jetstream Series 3100 twin turboprop. On all but one takeoffs, close agreement seen in terms distance, as predicted vs observed, at point passing 35 ft screen height; outlier, evidence sudden change wind speed presented probable cause discrepancy. Such are subject many other sources error uncertainty, which inherent both analysis simulation, stemming highly dynamic complex nature phase flight. also proposes be template dealing these issues, way that applicable benchmarking studies.